research report about overpopulation

The Overpopulation Project

TOP – Research and Outreach

Our Motivation

People are overstressing the Earth: using too many resources, generating too much waste, and leaving polluted landscapes and empty seas in our wake. But this is the only home we have. Our descendants will depend on Earth’s ecosystem services for their health and well-being, just as we do. Ten million other species also need sufficient habitat and essential resources to survive and thrive. We have no right to extinguish them ; instead, we have a responsibility to create ecologically sustainable societies that allow all Earth’s life forms to flourish.

Limiting human numbers must be part of this effort. Yet environmentalists rarely acknowledge this—either because we think population growth is no longer a problem, or because we think the problem will solve itself. Neither is true. Excessive family size sends tens of millions of children to bed hungry each night in the developing world, where rapid population growth stresses scarce water, food and space resources beyond safe limits. Meanwhile continued population growth leads to deforestation, ailing coral reefs , and paved over farm lands and wetlands. Around the world, most national populations continue to grow and the United Nations projects a massive increase of 3.5 billion more people by 2100.

The Overpopulation Project studies the environmental impacts of overpopulation in an effort to remind environmentalists, scientists and policy makers of the contributions ending population growth can make in dealing successfully with global environmental problems. Believing that much of this century’s projected population increase could be avoided with the right public policies, it also explores humane policies to end population growth sooner rather than later.

The views and opinions expressed in guest blog posts are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Overpopulation Project.

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Global population has hit 8 billion

By William Ryerson and Kathleen Mogelgaard

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A Scientist’s Warning to humanity on human population growth

One needs only to peruse the daily news to be aware that humanity is on a dangerous and challenging trajectory. This essay explores the prospect of adopting a science-based framework for confronting these potentially adverse prospects. It explores a perspective based on relevant ecological and behavioral science. The objective is to involve concerned citizens of the world in this enterprise. The overall objective is to maintain Planet Earth as a favorable home for the future of humanity. Nine ecological principles explain one major aspect of what is happening and provide critical guidelines for appropriate action. Nine social behaviors explore how we might integrate social science insights with those from ecology. Twenty predictions are proposed based on these ecological and social science principles plus existing trends. If these trends are not vigorously and courageously confronted, we will likely be on track for the demise of our civilization. As we examine these challenges, our job will be especially complicated because a major segment of humanity is not prepared to accept evidence based on science, and this generates much resistance to any efforts directed toward effective control of current and future challenges. In these complex circumstances, we must remain as cooperative and optimistic as possible so that we can promote the needed willpower and ingenuity.

This essay has broad support as it is a contribution to the Scientists’ Warning to Humanity Program of the Alliance of World Scientists ( Ripple et al., 2017 ).

1. Introduction

Planet Earth is an absolutely amazing place. An apparent rarity in the universe, it possesses the appropriate physical conditions to support life. As a result it hosts a tremendous variety of living creatures which we recognize and classify as various species. In relatively recent times, human life evolved, and in large part due to our extraordinary intelligence, has become the dominant life form on the planet. With nuclear power technologies, we are now capable of destroying all complex life forms, including ourselves. Our dominance is recognized by the acceptance of the term Anthropocene which proclaims that we have entered a human dominated planetary phase. Our numbers are projected to increase from an estimated 7.6 billion to 10 billion by 2050 ( Baillie and Zhang, 2018 ). Human caused species extinctions have also reached an unprecedented rate such that we are generally viewed as causing the sixth mass extinction episode for the planet. A recent effort to photograph human impacts on land use over the entire globe from 1992 to 2015 documents this rapidly increasing global-scale impact on land areas ( Nowosad et al., 2018 ). The inevitable questions for humanity at this stage in our history are: “Does this matter for our species?” “Does this rapid increase in numbers along with its corresponding expansion of our utilization of the Earth’s land area matter?” What does it mean for us?” Maybe it is merely a signal that we are a very successful species, and we can celebrate our good fortune. On the other hand, perhaps it is a signal that we are over-exploiting the Earth’s resources and we should seriously be preparing for a population crash. Or, are there still other scenarios? In the following two sections of this essay, we will explore these questions from the perspective of ecological science and then again from behavioral science. Subsequently, we will look for lessons learned by considering 20 predictions that emerge from our analysis.

2. Relevant ecological principles

Nine established principles of ecological science that are relevant to the circumstances we face are as follows:

• 1. Population growth in numbers on a finite planet cannot continue indefinitely for any living species, including humans ( Czech, 2013 ; Meadows et al., 2004 ).
• 2. Population growth generates three possible negative forces that collectively increase exponentially and eventually stop growth. These are increasing mortality rates, decreasing birth rates, and increasing rates of emigration relative to immigration. Only the first two of these are applicable with a global perspective. Separately or collectively, these negative processes cause population growth to stop. If access to required resources has been compromised during growth, the population may not only stop growing but decline or even crash ( Lidicker, 2002 ).
• 3. Living systems require energy for their ongoing existence. The proportion of available energy that is required for maintenance of living systems increases as the size and complexity of those systems increase. This means that the proportion of energy available for other desirable activities such as reproduction, individual growth, maintenance of health, and defense against parasites and pathogens will be proportionally and progressively less and less available as numbers increase ( Brown,J.H., Burnside, R. et al., 2011 ).
• 4. For social species such as humans, increasing numbers require additional energy for maintaining the integrity and cohesion of the groups to which they belong, and on which they depend for their livelihood.
• 5. The resources that humans need to support their food and shelter requirements are partly non-renewable and partly renewable. The first requires the extraction of various minerals, water, fuels, and building materials. Over time these resources will decline and become increasingly more difficult to extract. In the case of fresh water, supplies are becoming increasingly polluted. This not only affects us directly, but also all of the non-marine species that constitute the basis for our food supplies, medicinal drugs, other building materials, as well as a myriad of so-called “ecosystem services”. This trend also can influence weather patterns … Recent studies have concluded that our annual supply of renewables is now being used up by about August 1 of any given calendar year. Thus for five months we are deficit spending these resources, and in the process generally doing damage such that the Earth’s capability of generating these renewables becomes diminished ( Wakernagal et al., 2002 ). This human impact on the generation of these essential resources has been dubbed “the human footprint.” Two diverse examples illustrate the major impacts that humanity is making on renewable resources: 1) Mongolian steppe grasslands are heavily degraded because of exploding demands for cashmere wool plus a series of unusually severe winters ( MacLaughlin, 2019 ); 2) Diadromous fish populations in the north Atlantic have declined dramatically from multiple causes ( Limburg and Walden, 2009 ).
• 6. The human enterprise cannot succeed by going it alone ( Crist et al., 2017 ; Heal, 2017 ). Success requires the presence of a rich biota to provide the conditions necessary for our survival. As mentioned, these enabling services have been labeled with the metaphor of “ecosystem services” ( Daily, 1997 ; Norgaard, 2010 ). This concept has been reasonably successful in calling attention to our dependence on the Earth’s biota for humanity’s existence and welfare. These benefits that non-human organisms provide for us include oxygen generation, soil fertility, pollination of crops and other plant food resources, fisheries, air and water purification, pest control, medicines, genetic resources, fuel, building materials, weather moderation, dispersal of seeds and nutrients, partial stabilization of climate, mitigation of floods and droughts, decomposition of wastes, industrial applications, etc. And, this is not to mention the provision of a healthy, aesthetic, and intellectually stimulating environment (Daily1997).
• 7. Cnfounding the Earth’s declining ability to supply a steadily accelerating supply of the resources upon which we depend is that the species of living organisms that are required for production of renewable resources are increasingly facing population declines and risks of extinction because of ongoing fragmentation and degradation of the natural habitats that they need for maintaining healthy populations with long term viability ( Ascensão et al., 2018 ; Tucker,M.A.,K. Bohnning-Gaese et al., 2018 ; Hilty et al., 2019 ; Laurance, 2019 ).
• 8. Fortunately, it is the case that when populations and communities of numerous species are damaged by human activities or unusual forces, they can quite often recover over time if they are suitably protected from subsequent damages. However, we now know that if a community is badly damaged, it can experience a “tipping point” or threshold such that it cannot recover ( Dai et al., 2012 ; Roque et al., 2018 ), and it then becomes a different kind of community that is generally less productive, and much less useful to humans. This illustrates one of the many mechanisms that result in reduced resource availabilities, or expanded human footprints, as populations continue to build.
• 9. As we strive to preserve as much of our natural heritage as possible, we need to be aware of an often neglected feature of highly motile species. This is that individuals of such species often need more than one kind of suitable habitat. For example, there may be different habitat types required for different life history stages. An obvious example is species of frogs that begin life in a freshwater pond, but then metamorphose into adults that live in a forest. Many species are seasonally migratory, utilizing quite different habitats at different seasons. Some may even require particular transit habitats. An interesting case is that of caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) in eastern Canada. Individuals that spend the winter at greater distances from their summer range survive better, but as a result such individuals will require larger home ranges ( Lafontain et al., 2007 ). A particular hazard for some migratory species is that the travel routes may need to be learned from conspecifics ( Festa-Bianchet, 2018 ; Jesmer et al., 2018 ). This implies that if social groups get too small they may lose all their potential leaders, and hence access to migratory destinations.

3. Relevant social behaviors

The following nine social behaviors can and should be recruited to help humanity respond to the ecological impacts that will surely endanger human civilization if current trends are allowed to continue.

• 1. We must explicitly recognize the need for an appropriate mixture of altruistic and self-promoting social behaviors. The first of these benefit the sociopolitical groups to which we belong (the common good), and the second group of behaviors supports the individual welfare of each of the citizens that constitute those groups ( Reich, 2019 ). Both are essential for our ongoing welfare. This principal emphasizes the necessity of having democratic mechanisms in place that promote true feelings of participation in the crafting of sustainable societies. This spirit of cooperation is essential for encouraging discussions that generate an appropriate mixture of benefits to individuals and to the success of the sociopolitical groups to which they belong ( Reich, 2019 ). Moreover, there will need to be a system of appropriate sanctions for individuals who have overly selfish or parasitic tendencies. This dual-purpose social behavior has a long history going back to our primate ancestors ( de Waal, 2015 ) and is clearly expressed in the U.S. Constitution. An illustrative example of how far we have drifted from this principle is provided by a quote from David Starr Jordan, a famous fish biologist who was a Professor of Zoology and later President of Stanford University, that is preserved in a 1933 8th grade graduation diploma from a school in Hawaii. Jordan’s message includes the statement that “Success means service. The more you serve the cause of others, the greater will be your own success.” In modern societies, this duality of behavioral modes is rarely explicit and increasingly favors individual benefits. When it is discussed, it is often put in terms of pursuit of private wealth (money) versus self-sacrificing altruism. Another unfortunate expression of this duality that has become common in the political dialog in the USA often occurs when behaviors that support the common good are labeled as “socialism.” While technically correct, this term translates for many Americans into “communism” which has widespread negative connotations. On the other hand, the single minded pursuit of money is justified as beneficial capitalism. These unfortunate interpretations of “socialism” make it more difficult to promote democracy which unequivocally requires a balance of the two modes of social behavior ( Lidicker, 2003 ; Reich, 2019 ).
• 2. Sociopolitical groups are hierarchically arranged, and all individuals must be contributing members of one or more groups, preferably including groups at multiple hierarchical levels. For example, an individual may belong to a neighborhood group, a county government, and a professional vocational association. National citizenship is an almost ubiquitous example of group membership.
• 3. Dialog at all levels needs to be respectful of the huge array of world views that currently exist in and among various social groups ( Reich, 2019 ). When serious disagreements arise within a group, it is often appropriate and effective to promote conversations with the observation that differing viewpoints generally will accommodate many objectives or components that are held in common. Hopefully, encouraging this approach will make it possible to address disagreements in a cooperative and compromising manner. An example of such a cultural impediment that needs to be confronted is the almost universal prohibition against including human population growth in relevant discussions ( Bongaarts, O’ Neill et al., 2018 ).
• 4. Appropriately there are often moral issues that need to be discussed or at least acknowledged in any considerations of human population growth. Moral principles are mostly acquired in childhood and as youthful adults. As such they are very difficult to modify. Our deliberations need to respect that reality. Tampering with human population growth is a topic that is loaded with moral issues. Those that accept the relevant scientific evidence are often accused of being genocidal, racist, anti-poor folks, anti-religion, and generally anti-human. These accusations are completely in error. In fact, the position taken in by the scientifically aware is the opposite. Generally, those who accept the scientific imperative feel that they have a moral responsibility to be concerned about the future of mankind. Usually they also are genuinely concerned about the huge inequities in the distribution of resources around the Earth. For many there is also a moral concern for the drift of governments away from democracies and into authoritarian regimes. This trend encourages increasing xenophobia which in turn generates a lack of cooperation among groups, and inevitably increasing negative interactions.
• 5. When engaging in discussion topics that deal with conservation and the future of humanity, it is generally advisable to avoid arguments based largely on aesthetics, love of nature, and related approaches. While these positions are valid in the context of particular world views, they are all susceptible to being characterized as the products of special interest groups, and tend to be divisive. Teachers and leaders at all levels need to appreciate that opinions which humans grow up with are very difficult to change by reasoning and argument alone. The multiple viewpoints can be accommodated by compromises, cooperation, and mutually supported programs and policies.
• 6. Community discussions are much more likely to succeed if the participants have sufficient education so that they can differentiate truth from falsehoods, and know how to think critically. This means that successful societies must provide good public education that is readily available to all children ( Lidicker, 2003 . Reich, 2019 ).
• 7. Related to this last array of social behaviors is the extremely important and yet very difficult social issue of the appropriateness of humans deliberately manipulating their own species numbers. One world view on this is that humans should do what they can to have as many members of their own species living on our planet as they can. This view was ingrained in our genes for almost all of human history, and surely has contributed to our successful survival and expansive distribution. It is also ingrained in many of our cultural behaviors and beliefs. A logical corollary of this viewpoint is that any effort to control population growth is genocide and inherently racist. However, in recent decades other issues relating to population growth have emerged. For example, it is now widely believed that women should be able to determine when and for how many times they should become pregnant. Known outcomes of this view are: smaller families that are less likely to live in poverty, improved education and hence job opportunities, communities with higher average standards of living, less criminal activity, healthier citizens, democratic governing structures, etc. Moreover, it is increasingly apparent that without constraints on population growth there is also the inevitability of genocide of a different type (see ecological principles 1–3) along with the following 20 realistic predictions. Peacefully debating the virtues of these two modes of so-called genocide will be a monumental challenge, but one we must face ( Kopnina and H. Washington, 2016 ; Kopnina and B. Taylor et al., 2018 ; Washington et al., 2019 ). The good news is that there is abundant worldwide evidence that if adults have the tools and understanding needed for controlling their own reproductive output, it will be modest and sustainable.
• 8. An aura of optimism is important. Pessimism leads only to inaction followed by failures and more pessimism ( Lidicker, 2011 ). An encouraging hopeful sign is the recent widespread mobilization of youthful activists in support of numerous progressive causes.
• 9. Conservationists should more aggressively confront the social tendency to minimize or ignore long term consequences of development projects, and take advantage of opportunities to educate the public about the issues involved ( Laurance et al., 2014 ). Litigation also can be a tool for delaying projects long enough for public education to become effective ( Florens and Vincenot., 2018 ).

4. Realistic prospects and problems

Obviously we need to muster all our resources and social skills to prevent continuing in our currently unsustainable trajectory. Equipped now with an ecological and behavioral framework, we can begin to carefully construct guidelines to inform our future efforts. A reasonable place to begin would seem to be an outline of our goals for humanity in the immediate future. Do we accept a fate of massive poverty, massive mortality from wars, terrorism, and disease, and uncontrollable migrations to the places where basic resources are still available? This is our current trajectory ( Brown, 2006 ; Heal 2017 ; Kopnina and Washington (2016) ; Stokstad 2019 ). We can assume, I hope, that we would prefer a future that features a comfortable standard of living with minimal disparity among individuals and social groups, high levels of education, and democratic organizational structures for social groups at all levels of organization. In this way, everyone can feel they have input into decisions being made that likely will affect them. Especially important is respectful coexistence of diverse cultures and world views.

In the recent past, there has been much discussion as to whether our deteriorating situation should be blamed mainly on human population growth or whether affluence and pollution should share as major contributors ( Ehrlich and Holdren 1971 . Actually, these three factors interact in complex ways. For example, while improving the standard of living of people everywhere is clearly a desired objective, this certainly would add to the consumption of renewable and non-renewable resources. On the other hand, if affluence were more equally distributed than it currently is, it would improve the situation so that people in general are more content with their lives and hence are more likely to be cooperative and productive. Pollution of our environment also reduces our standard of living through its negative impacts on our health, and by increasingly deleterious impacts on our agriculture, parks, and natural areas. This in turn reduces the health benefits of natural areas ( Weinstein et al., 2015 ), and diminishes the rate of replenishment of renewable resources.

An often heard argument is that technological advances will allow us to overcome the negative effects of population growth. Technology can and certainly will contribute to a slowing of the current negative trends. However, at this time in our history it is apparent that rapid human population growth along with out-of- control climate change will not only quickly cancel out many of the benefits for humans that technology may contribute, but it will continuously add new challenges as population growth, resource depletion, and climate change continue. Mann (2018) engagingly discusses this dichotomy of prevailing beneficial natural processes dominating our future versus a technology based “green revolution.” Probably some combination of these two survival strategies will prevail. The reality, however, is much more complicated. Superimposed on these two approaches, we face the real possibility that current and future climate changes will force humanity worldwide to confront widespread disruption of human communities and ecosystem services, not to mention negative impacts on biodiversity ( Norgaard, 2010 ; Nolan et al., 2018 ). For example, we can anticipate warming climates increasing crop losses to insect pests, especially at temperate latitudes ( Deutsch et al., 2018 ). Moreover, it is especially important that we plan for anticipated extreme weather events and catastrophic fires. An example of a positive recent research finding is that restoring large grazers to depleted range lands can blunt the impacts of major fires in those situations ( Pennisi, 2018 ).

Hopefully, the negative projections might increase the awareness of the public and governments regarding the necessity to confront the drivers of climate change more vigorously. Inevitably, this will incorporate an increasing focus on slowing of human population growth. Unfortunately, many humans, probably more than half, are opposed to any plan that would involve slowing and eventually stopping human population growth. There are many reasons for this point of view that makes folks unwilling to confront the risks we collectively face. One important reason for this reluctance is that since the late 1970’s, most world cultures have moved toward rewarding individual benefits over supporting the common good. This trend compromises the feeling of cooperation within the social groups to which we all belong and depend on for our survival ( Reich, 2019 ). More troublesome is the realization that, as mentioned, many folks view any efforts to contain population growth as homicide, etc. In reality, efforts to control our runaway population growth are precisely and explicitly the opposite. We want to improve the welfare of people everywhere, and strive to eliminate poverty, racism and other forms of xenophobia. Lastly, we would want to maintain an individual’s freedom to control their own reproductive activities. The only constraint on an individual’s behavior is that it must be compatible with the needs of the social groups to which they belong.

5. Realistic predictions

Realistic predictions can be derived from ecological and sociopolitical knowledge as well as from already existing trends, and can serve to motivate appropriate actions. An example of a well-established existing trend is that of global warming. Scientists have been concerned about this human caused trend at least as far back as 1966 ( Landsberg, 1970 ). Predictions, however, are inherently risky, especially given the power of human ingenuity to address perceived problems. Three examples of failures to predict accurately are: 1) the much faster than predicted sea level rises associated with the deltas of large river systems ( Voosen, 2019 ); 2) The unanticipated huge wave of unusually hot water that beginning five years ago swept across the Pacific Ocean causing widespread havoc with fisheries, seabird populations and whales, and is currently developing again ( Cornwall, 2019 ); and 3) Concentrations of the greenhouse gas methane are increasing in the atmosphere more rapidly than predicted ( Mikaloff Fletcher and Schaefer, 2019 ). In general, modern chaos theory supports the generalization that when dealing with complex systems, longer term predictions are more reliable because they are guided predominately by deterministic processes, while shorter term predictions are less reliably accurate since they often are strongly influenced ly by random processes. In general it will be very difficult to predict the ability of species and he communities of which they are a part to adapt successfully to the rapidly changing conditions in our future ( Bridle and van Rensburg (2020) . In this cautious spirit, the following 20 predictions are offered as potential warnings.

• a) The Earth’s per capita ability to supply basic food resources for humans will decline ( Deutsch et al., 2018 ; Riegler, 2018 ).
• b) Supplies of potable water will decline.
• c) The average standard of living will decline, probably with a continuously increasing unevenness of access to resources.
• d) Human immigration pressures will increase dramatically, mostly directed to those places on the planet that retain the highest levels of access to the remaining resources.
• e) Health maintenance levels and average life expectancies will diminish.
• f) The prevalence of disease outbreaks and pandemics will increase ( Pongsiri et al., 2009 ). In part this will be due to progressive diminution and loss of favorable gut microbiota, especially in urban areas ( Dominguez Bello et al., 2018 ).
• g) The proportion of individuals with debilitating mental illnesses will increase along with a general increase in the proportion of folks unhappy with their living conditions.
• h) Earthquakes will increase in numbers as a result of the proliferation of injection wells ( Goebel et al., 2018 ). These wells generate significantly destructive earthquake activity up to 30 km distance from the wells.
• i) The Earth’s climate will continue to warm into the foreseeable future ( Naff, 2016 ) leading to increasing instances of extreme weather conditions ( Murakami et al., 2018 ).
• j) Saltwater intrusion into coastal communities, sometimes for many kilometers, will endanger coastal forest wetlands ( Gewen, 2018 ), modify greenhouse gas emissions, increase methane production, and jeopardize coastal real estate values ( Worth and Dahl, 2018 ).
• k) Increasing ocean acidification will endanger marine life compromising an extremely important source of food for humans.
• l) Concentrations of methane, a powerful climate altering compound has nearly tripled in the atmosphere since 1800 and is expected to continue increasing driven by many causes, especially by agriculture and use of fossil fuels ( Mikaloff Fletcher and Schaefer, 2019 , Voosen, 2019 , Voosen, 2020 ).
• m) Extinction rates for the Earth’s biota will continue to increase alarmingly Stokstad (2019) .
• n) Insect biomass has declined dramatically in Germany ( Vogel, 2017 ), and this may be a prelude for similar trends elsewhere.
• o) Rapid expansion of infrastructure, such as roads, to support human population growth will generate multiple hazards for humans and the rest of the global biota ( Laurance et al., 2014 ; Laurance, 2019 ).
• p) Criminal activity in general will increase ( Weinstein et al., 2015 ) as well as both domestic and international terrorism.
• q) Governments at all levels will become more authoritarian.
• r) Social groupings above the levels of neighborhoods and small towns will become increasingly xenophobic.
• s) Pressure for recreation will increasingly and negatively impact protected areas.
• t) Support for education and basic research will decline as they are threats to dictatorships.

6. Guidelines

Here are six guidelines for all concerned citizens of this planet that summarize recommended approaches for achieving a sustainable human civilization. In addition, please note that Kopnina et al. (2016) have provided a most welcome list of human behaviors that non-coercively will help to guide us to population stability.

• 1) Pay attention to scientific understanding, and support future research. To make this effective, scientists need to do their part by making the effort to explain their findings in ways that can be understood by educated non-scientists and especially by government leaders.
• 2) Remain as optimistic as the evidence permits. No one wants to contribute time and financial support to lost causes, even if they are presented as important for various reasons. On the other hand, optimism encourages enthusiastic support for even difficult but important programs.
• 3) Maintain respectful dialog with as large a component of the Earth’s citizenry as possible. While local and regional projects are important for improving limited areas, and for education of residents and visitors, in the long term we will not succeed without significant cooperative involvement of all parts of Earth. We need to encourage the recent trends toward eliminating gender, ethnic, and racial biases in all aspects of human civilization. All women of reproductive age should have access to the tools needed to prevent unwanted pregnancies. Relevant to human population growth, it is important to note that when women have control over their reproductive activities, they typically make choices that are appropriate to their social and environmental circumstances. Population numbers then become stabilized. It is also critical for all sex-related decisions that all world citizens have access to education at least through the secondary school level.
• 4) Encourage cooperation and democracy in the organizational structure of social, governmental, and other groupings of various sizes and complexity. The Earth is full of countries with various levels of autocratic governments, and therefore we know that autocrats are not cooperative. Their primary job is maintaining their personal power. The welfare of their citizenry is low on their priorities, and may even be absent. Moreover, maintenance of the natural environment that in the long run supports their government may also be ignored or perhaps be exploited for monetary gain. Unfortunately, many countries, including the USA, are moving in the direction of autocracy, or are already there.
• 5) Be constantly aware of finding the appropriate balance of activities that support both the common good and those that enhance individual fitness. This dual support is essential for survival of social species such as Homo sapiens. However in some countries, including the USA, this duality is rarely mentioned and is certainly not emphasized. When it is mentioned, at least in the United States, it generally is put in terms of making money for the rich and large corporations versus unselfish giving to the poor. These behaviors are justified as appropriate capitalism on the one hand and admirable charity on the other. Recently, another tactic is to give to the financially poor and call it “socialism.” Of course it is socialism but in some countries, such as the US, this name is translated to unacceptable communism. Meaningful support for the financially stressed is threatened or absent, and yet is important to find ways to keep those struggling with financial poverty as contributing members of a democratic society.
• 6) Don’t underestimate the need for rapid progress in confronting the 20 predictions listed above. Cooperative social support is needed now. The current Covid 19 pandemic offers some helpful lessons in social behavior. Cooperation is now widespread and appreciated. Altruism is more and more common. Search for an appropriate vaccine is a worldwide endeavor. Even some corporations are considering giving to the common good. And, as predicted, there are individuals who compromise the cooperative spirit by intentionally not wearing masks when asked to do so, and thereby endangering the larger community in which they are a part. In such a social context, societies would be justified in protecting themselves from such dangers.

A final thought: Nine decades ago, Anne Frank gave us this wisdom: “How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world.”

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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Scientists more worried than public about world’s growing population.

Over the course of history, many scientists and activists have raised alarm about population numbers that only increase every year.

When the English scholar Thomas Malthus published An Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798, the number of people around the world was nearing 1 billion for the first time. “The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man,” he wrote then.

In 2015, the global population is an estimated 7.3 billion, according to the United Nations , and many of Malthus’s and Ehrlich’s predictions have yet to come true or have been proven false (such as the “increasing” death rate, which has actually decreased ).

According to a pair of 2014 Pew Research Center surveys , however, today’s scientists are more likely than the general American public to be concerned about population growth, though not necessarily to the extent that Malthus and Ehrlich were.

Americans used to be much less concerned about population growth, according to Gallup polls: In 1959, three-quarters (75%) of Americans had heard about the “great increase in population” predicted for the world during the coming decades, but just 21% of Americans said they were worried about it. And when comparing population concerns with a list of global threats,  a 1997 Pew Research Center poll  showed that Americans were more worried about other potential risks.

Looking ahead, it’s still unclear what the population trajectory will be. The UN says that population will continue to grow throughout the 21 st century, predicting with 80% confidence that it will reach somewhere between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion people by 2100.

Growth is expected to occur mostly in Africa, and abate in the Americas, Europe and parts of Asia, especially as families in more-developed nations have fewer children than they used to have. In many countries in the latter regions, the total fertility rate has dropped below the “replacement rate” of about 2.1 lifetime births per woman. The total fertility rate in the U.S. , for example, fell to 1.86 in 2013.

Global Population Estimates by Age, 1950-2050

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About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts .

Articles on Overpopulation

Displaying 1 - 20 of 44 articles.

Thinking of having a baby as the planet collapses? First, ask yourself 5 big ethical questions

Craig Stanbury , Monash University

Global population hits 8 billion, but per-capita consumption is still the main problem

Lorenzo Fioramonti , University of Surrey ; Ida Kubiszewski , UCL ; Paul Sutton , University of Denver , and Robert Costanza , UCL

You are now one of 8 billion humans alive today. Let’s talk overpopulation – and why low income countries aren’t the issue

Matthew Selinske , RMIT University ; Leejiah Dorward , Bangor University ; Paul Barnes , UCL , and Stephanie Brittain , University of Oxford

8 billion people: why trying to control the population is often futile – and harmful

Melanie Channon , University of Bath and Jasmine Fledderjohann , Lancaster University

More than 1 in 5 US adults don’t want children

Zachary P. Neal , Michigan State University and Jennifer Watling Neal , Michigan State University

What the controversial 1972 ‘Limits to Growth’ report got right: Our choices today shape future conditions for life on Earth

Matthew E. Kahn , USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

Curb population growth to tackle climate change: now that’s a tough ask

Michael P. Cameron , University of Waikato

Worried about Earth’s future? Well, the outlook is worse than even scientists can grasp

Corey J. A. Bradshaw , Flinders University ; Daniel T. Blumstein , University of California, Los Angeles , and Paul Ehrlich , Stanford University

Bob Brown is right – it’s time environmentalists talked about the population problem

Colin D. Butler , Australian National University

Beware far-right arguments disguised as environmentalism

Marc Hudson , Keele University

Why we should be wary of blaming ‘overpopulation’ for the climate crisis

Heather Alberro , Nottingham Trent University

Pasha 45: Spotlight on population growth in Africa

Ozayr Patel, The Conversation

Stabilising the global population is not a solution to the climate emergency – but we should do it anyway

Mark Maslin , UCL

Want to live longer? Consider the ethics

John K. Davis , California State University, Fullerton

Here’s what a population policy for Australia could look like

Liz Allen , Australian National University

‘Overpopulation’ and the environment: three ideas on how to discuss it in a sensitive way

Rebecca Laycock Pedersen , Keele University and David P. M. Lam , Leuphana University

Australia could house around 900,000 more migrants if we no longer let in tourists

Raja Junankar , UNSW Sydney

Making small cities bigger will help better distribute Australia’s 25 million people

Glen Searle , University of Sydney

A long fuse: ‘The Population Bomb’ is still ticking 50 years after its publication

Derek Hoff , University of Utah

Future ‘ocean cities’ need green engineering above and below the waterline

Katherine Dafforn , UNSW Sydney ; Ana Bugnot , UNSW Sydney ; Eliza Heery , National University of Singapore , and Mariana Mayer-Pinto , UNSW Sydney

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8 Billion Opportunities: On November 15, 2022 humanity's population eclipsed 8 billion people. What Does This Mean?

Overpopulation: Cause and Effect

Conversations about overpopulation can quickly become controversial because they beg the question: Who exactly is the cause of the problem and what, if anything, should be done about it? Many population experts worry discussions around overpopulation will be abused by small-minded people to suggest some are the “right people” to be on the planet (like themselves), and some people are “the wrong people” (usually people in poverty, people of color, foreigners, and so on—you get the drift). But there are no “right” or “wrong” people on the planet, and discussing the problems of global overpopulation can never be an excuse, or in any way provide a platform, for having that type of conversation.

Each human being has a legitimate claim on a sufficient and fair amount of Earth’s resources. But with a population approaching 8 billion, even if everyone adopted a relatively low material standard of living like the one currently found in Papua New Guinea , it would still push Earth to its ecological breaking point. Unfortunately, the “average person” on Earth consumes at a rate over 50% above a sustainable level. Incredibly, the average person in the United States uses almost five times more than the sustainable yield of the planet.

When we use the term “overpopulation,” we specifically mean a situation in which the Earth cannot regenerate the resources used by the world’s population each year. Experts say this has been the case every year since 1970, with each successive year becoming more and more damaging. To help temper this wildly unsustainable situation, we need to understand what’s contributing to overpopulation and overconsumption and how these trends are affecting everything from climate change to sociopolitical unrest.

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The causes of overpopulation.

Today the Earth is home to more than 7.8 billion people . By 2100 the population is on track to hit 10.8 billion , according to the United Nations — and that’s assuming steady fertility declines in many countries. Interestingly, if extra progress is made in women’s reproductive self-determination, and fertility falls more than the United Nations assumes is likely, the population in 2100 might be a relatively smaller 7.3 billion.

For now, the world’s population is still increasing in huge annual increments (about 80 million per year), and our supply of vital non-renewable resources are being exhausted. Many factors contribute to these unsustainable trends, including falling mortality rates, underutilized contraception, and a lack of education for girls.

Falling Mortality Rate

The primary (and perhaps most obvious) cause of population growth is an imbalance between births and deaths. The infant mortality rate has decreased globally, with 4.1 million infant deaths in 2017 compared to 8.8 million in 1990, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). This is welcome public health news, of course.

At the same time, lifespans are increasing around the world. Those of us who are alive today will likely live much longer than most of our ancestors. Global average life expectancy has more than doubled since 1900 , thanks to advancements in medicine, technology, and general hygiene. Falling mortality rates are certainly nothing to complain about either, but widespread longevity does contribute to the mathematics of increasing population numbers.

Underutilized Contraception 

The global fertility rate has fallen steadily over the years, down from an average of 5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.4 children per woman today, according to the UN Population Division . Along with that promising trend, contraceptive use has slowly but steadily increased globally, rising from 54% in 1990 to 57.4% in 2015. Yet, on the whole, contraceptive use is still underutilized. For example, according to the WHO, an estimated 214 million women in developing countries who want to avoid pregnancy are not using modern contraceptives.

These women aren’t using contraceptives for a variety of reasons, including social norms or religious beliefs that discourage birth control, misconceptions about adverse side effects, and a lack of agency for women to make decisions around sex and family planning. An estimated 44% of pregnancies were unintended worldwide between 2010-2014. Getting more women the access and agency to utilize family planning methods could go a long way in flattening the population curve.

Lack of Female Education    

Although female access to education has increased over the years, the gender gap remains. Roughly 130 million girls worldwide are out of school currently, and an estimated 15 million girls of primary school age will never   learn to read and write, compared with 10 million boys.

Increasing and encouraging education among women and girls can have a number of positive ripple effects, including delayed childbearing , healthier children, and an increase in workforce participation. Plenty of evidence suggests a negative correlation between female education and fertility rates.

If increased female education can delay or decrease fertility and provide girls with opportunities beyond an early marriage, it could also help to mitigate current population trends. 

The Effects of Overpopulation

It is only logical that an increase in the world’s population will cause additional strains on resources. More people means an increased demand for food, water, housing, energy, healthcare, transportation, and more. And all that consumption contributes to ecological degradation, increased conflicts, and a higher risk of large-scale disasters like pandemics.  

Ecological Degradation 

An increase in population will inevitably create pressures leading to more deforestation, decreased biodiversity, and spikes in pollution and emissions, which will exacerbate climate change. Ultimately, unless we take action to help minimize further population growth heading into the remainder of this century, many scientists believe the additional stress on the planet will lead to ecological disruption and collapse so severe it threatens the viability of life on Earth as we know it. 

Each spike in the global population has a measurable impact on the planet’s health. According to estimates in a study by Wynes and Nicholas (2017) , a family having one fewer child could reduce emissions by 58.6 tonnes CO2-equivalent per year in developed countries.

Increased Conflicts 

The scarcity brought about by environmental disruption and overpopulation has the potential to trigger an increase in violence and political unrest. We’re already seeing wars fought over water, land, and energy resources in the Middle East and other regions, and the turmoil is likely to increase as the global population grows even larger.

Higher Risk of Disasters and Pandemics 

Many of the recent novel pathogens that have devastated humans around the world, including COVID-19, Zika virus, Ebola, and West Nile virus, originated in animals or insects before passing to humans. Part of the reason the world is entering “ a period of increased outbreak activity ” is because humans are destroying wildlife habitats and coming into contact with wild animals on a more regular basis. Now that we’re in the midst of a pandemic, it has become clear how difficult it is to social distance in a world occupied by nearly 8 billion people.   

Discover the real causes and effects of overpopulation

What can be done .

When addressing overpopulation, it’s crucial to take an approach of providing empowerment while mobilizing against anybody advocating for the use of coercion or violence to solve our problems. The combined efforts of spreading knowledge about family planning, increasing agency among women, and debunking widely held myths about contraception will measurably change the trajectory of the world’s population.

As we carry out our work at Population Media Center (PMC), we see first-hand that spreading awareness about family planning methods and the ecological and economic benefits of having smaller families can change reproductive behavior. For example, listeners of our Burundian radio show Agashi (“Hey! Look Again!”) were 1.7 times more likely than non-listeners to confirm that they were willing to negotiate condom use with a sexual partner and 1.8 times more likely than non-listeners to say that they generally approve of family planning for limiting the number of children.

At PMC we harness the power of storytelling to empower listeners to live healthier and more prosperous lives, which in turn contributes to stabilizing the global population so that people can live sustainably with the world’s renewable resources. Discover how PMC is taking action against overpopulation today!

Chip in $10 To Help Us Address Overpopulation

8 billion opportunities.

The world’s population reached 8 billion people in 2022. PMC used this opportunity to draw global attention to the social and environmental power of prioritizing health, education, and equity for all.

77 Overpopulation Topics & Essay Examples

Looking for interesting overpopulation topics for an essay or research paper? The issue is hot and definitely worth writing about!

• 🔝 Top 10 Topics to Write About
• 🏆 Best Essay
• 📌 Most Interesting Topics to Write about
• 👍 Research Questions & Topics
• 💯 Free Essay Topic Generator

Here we’ve gathered a list of overpopulation essay examples, title ideas, and research questions related to the field. Get inspired with us!

🔝 Top 10 Overpopulation Topics to Write About

• Population dynamics in the world
• The role of medical advancements in human overpopulation
• Overpopulation: causes and effects
• Overpopulation and poverty: the correlation
• Does overpopulation threaten democracy?
• Social conflict and population growth: is there a connection?
• Overpopulation and pandemics today
• Population growth and human impact on environment
• Do we need to fight overpopulation?
• Human population planning

🏆 Best Overpopulation Essay

• The Problem of Global Overpopulation Insights gained from the chapters reveal that the main reason behind the problem of resource overconsumption which threatens the very future of the planet is the rampant overpopulation of humanity which threatens to drain the […]
• Human Population and the Environment The fertility rate of a given species will depend on the life history characteristics of the species such as the number of reproductive periods in the lifetime of the species and the number of offspring […]
• Overpopulation Benefits With this in mind, this paper shall set out to evaluate the impacts of overpopulation to the political, cultural, anthropological and economical perspectives to various economies and societies.
• Impacts of Overpopulation on the Environment Other primary causes of deforestation are construction of roads and residential houses to cater for the increasing population. As the natural habitats are destroyed, many wildlife species have been displaced and many died due to […]
• The Challenges of Overpopulation: Vertical Cities The design of the building assumes that the structure will have a longer and sustainable life as compared to the degrading city and surroundings.
• Overpopulation as a Challenge to Management’s Ethos It is based on this that when it comes to the threat of overpopulation as a challenge to management’s ethos of mass-production and mass-consumption, the problem lies in the fact that the ethos of companies […]
• The Problem of Overpopulation The purpose of this paper is to examine the causes and effects of overpopulation, potential threats to society, and the ecosystem, as well as the ways to overcome the problem.
• Overpopulation Challenges in China The population crisis in China has become a global issue, owing to the numerous contributions that the country makes towards the activities of the international community.
• Prison in the USA: Solutions to Reducing Overpopulation First of all, it is necessary to improve the justice system which is the reason of overpopulation in prisons. Secondly, it is necessary to rethink the life of inmates in prison.
• Overpopulation Effects on the Environment In comparison to the population in 2000, the population in 2050 is predicted to rise by 47 percent. The aim of this research is to describe the effects of overpopulation on land, air, and food […]
• Overpopulation: Causes, Effects, and Solutions Advances in industry and production provide clothes and items for the growing population to use, thus creating and maintaining a higher standard of living.
• Overpopulation: Causes, Effects and Consequences The primary objective is to highlight the deplorable consequences of overpopulation and thereby persuade people not to overpopulate. In the past, poor people gave birth to a lot of children to make up for high […]
• The Impact of Overpopulation on the Global Environment In support of the motion that the global population is too large and that the United States and other industrialized countries should support active measures to control population growth in the developing world, it is […]
• Birth Control Against Overpopulation Based on the information presented, it can be seen that the current growth of the human population is unsustainable in the long run due to the finite resources on the planet.
• Overpopulation and Homelessness in the Modern World According to the United Nations, more than half of the population resides in urban areas, making the problem of homelessness visible: cities cannot keep up with the high demand for housing, resulting in people living […]
• Overpopulation: “Empty Planet” by Bricker & Ibbitson However, while some people are trying in vain to stabilize the average population growth in all parts of the world, others are becoming aware of the implications such drastic changes can bring to the future […]
• Environmental Problems from Human Overpopulation The significant movement of the population to the suburbs, coupled with economic prosperity and the technological improvement that made it possible, began to take its toll.
• How Overpopulation Affects Our Economy These are: population dynamics and the demographic concept, reasons for the increase in the size of the population, effects of overpopulation in the economy, food production per capita index, lower national income, increasing burden on […]
• Does the Overpopulation of Our Planet Pose a Serious Problem? Another concern for the demographers is that while in certain developing nations the rate of population growth has been increasing, in the developed countries it has been found to be declining steadily.
• The Issue of the Overpopulation Particularly, the proponents of fertility control support their position by the fact that the degrading environment is no longer able to provide for the needs of so many people, and with the duration of time […]
• The Problem of Overpopulation and How to Fix It It can be stated the confidence that the solution to this global challenge is the primary duty of present and future generations. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the overpopulation phenomenon and propose […]
• Human Overpopulation and Its Global Impact Overpopulation presents a huge threat to the future of the planet, as the resources of the Earth seem to be at the breaking point because of their overexploitation caused by enormous rates of population increase.
• Problem of Overpopulation: Proenvironmental Concerns It is necessary to find the ways to solve future problems as the situation is likely to worsen over time. The mentioned quotes prove that it is possible to correct people’s thinking about overpopulation and […]
• Overpopulation and Food Production Problem Therefore, the issue explored in this paper is the decrease of Earth’s natural resources and capacity to produce food re decreasing, while the problem of hunger remains and the population continues to increase. 3% of […]
• Managing Overpopulation in India and Caused Problems The death of the aged reduces the population by 10. Employment to the youth reduces poverty.
• Overpopulation: Is the Small World Getting Smaller? Nevertheless, despite the legitimacy of the concerns raised over the slow availability of numerous resources and the seemingly drastic and steep increase in the number of people worldwide, the issue of overpopulation is likely to […]
• The Issue of Overpopulation and Human Population Growth Control The consequences of overpopulation include the depletion of natural resources and climate change which have hindered the conservation of natural resources such as water and animals.

📌 Most Interesting Overpopulation Topics to Write about

• The Effects Of Human Overpopulation On The Environment
• The Threat Of Terrorism And Overpopulation Concerns
• A Discussion on the Effects of Global Warming and Overpopulation in the World
• The Population of Our Planet and the Issue of the Overpopulation
• The View On Overpopulation: Looking Deeper Into The Hardinian Taboo
• The Growth Population and Problem of Overpopulation During the 20th Century
• The Effects of Overpopulation on the Economy of China
• Pet Overpopulation: Cause And Effect Of Homeless Pets
• The Growing Concerns Regarding the Overpopulation of the World Amid Limited Resources
• Thomas Malthus Overpopulation Theory
• The Importance of Slowing Down the Environmental Consequences of Overpopulation
• The Enviromnetal Degradation as a Result of Overpopulation
• A Comparison of the Insights on Overpopulation in the Media
• Problems Created By Overpopulation Population Growth World
• The United States: Future Contributions to Overpopulation
• The Growing Concerns over Global Overpopulation Relative to the Depleting Resources
• Why the Problem of Overpopulation is a Serious Problem Today
• The World Fastest Gowing Problems: Overpopulation
• Pet Overpopulation: Negative Effects and Prevention
• The Issue of Overpopulation and the Main Reasons Why Capital Cities Become Overpopulated

👍 Overpopulation Research Questions & Topics

• The Cause, Effect, and Solution to Overpopulation in the Philippines
• A Description of the Problem of Overpopulation of Cats in the United States
• The Struggle of Overpopulation: China’s Fight Against Numbers
• We Must Stop Overpopulation and Pollution of Our Environment
• An Analysis of the Big Concern and the Growth and the Overpopulation of Our Planet
• An Overview of the Natural Beauty and the Right to Decent, the Issues of Overpopulation
• An Analysis of Overpopulation and Population Growth
• Poverty Is Not Caused by Overpopulation, Overpopulation Is Caused by Poverty
• The Great Human Tumor : Earth ‘s Human Overpopulation Crisis
• Population Control Measures And Control Overpopulation
• The Cause and Effects of Pet Overpopulation
• An Analysis of the Environmental Degradation as a Result of Overpopulation
• Sociology: Overpopulation and Population Growth
• An Argument in Favor of Stopping the Environmental Problem of Overpopulation
• An Analysis of the Theme of Overpopulation in Population Bomb by Ehrlich
• The Decline of Environmental Conditions Due to Human Overpopulation
• Overpopulation: Unemployment and Possible Solutions
• Prison Alternatives as Possible Solutions to Controlling Overpopulation in American Prisons
• The Worsening Problem of Earth’s Overpopulation
• The Negative Impact of Overpopulation on the World

💯 Free Overpopulation Essay Topic Generator

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IvyPanda . "77 Overpopulation Topics & Essay Examples." January 28, 2023. https://ivypanda.com/essays/topic/overpopulation-essay-examples/.

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